Trump Tariffs to Start Feb. 1 in Mexico, Canada and China

On his first day in office, President Donald Trump did not enact tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada- plus increased tariffs on China–he did so on his second day instead. Under his new administration, the United States will impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico as punishment for allowing drugs and migrants to cross into the United States as well as an additional 10% tariff on goods from China to penalize the country for sending fentanyl.

Trump also threatened Wednesday to use tariffs against Russia and “other participating countries” if “we don’t make a ‘deal’ and soon,” to end the war in Ukraine.

According to the January ITS Logistics US Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index,  retailers have continued to front-load their imports, as noted by the National Retail Federation (NRF). The previously expected East Coast port strike also played a role in companies choosing to increase volume.

The Global Port Tracker reported an increase in volumes this fall, confirming that November’s container imports increased by 14.7% over a year earlier while being slightly down from October (3%). As a result of the official November TEU volume consisting of 2.17 million containers (excluding finalized numbers from the Port of New York and New Jersey) and projected December volume being over its forecast by 19%, equating to 2.24 million TEU, the NRF raised its forecast for the full year 2024. Due to the ongoing rush, the NRF expected the year to total 25.6 million TEU, with the momentum lasting through the first part of 2025. Overall, the NRF is calling for a 10% year-over-year (YOY) increase in January and March. On the contrary, February is expected to fall on the softer side because of the Lunar New Year timing this year.

“Shippers should prepare for the potential of a front-loading event similar to 2018, impacting transpacific trade lanes from Asia into North America—regardless of origin—as front-loading bottlenecks at the same entry point ports,” said Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain for ITS Logistics. “Industry professionals should also expect exports to be negatively impacted as well due to equipment imbalance and these possible retaliatory tariffs.”

Both Canada and Mexico have warned that they will respond to any tariffs with penalties of their own. Canada has said it planned to retaliate with tariffs and other trade restrictions if Mr. Trump went ahead with his plan, and Mexico has also threatened its own tariffs on American exports.

Outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Tuesday Canada will hit back at the U.S. if Trump goes ahead with punishing tariffs on Feb. 1.

“Everything is on the table and I support the principle of dollar-for-dollar matching tariffs,” Trudeau said. “It’s something we’re absolutely going to be looking at if they move forward. We are prepared for every possible scenario.”

Mexico President Claudia Sheinbaum has sought to avoid tariffs on all Mexican goods, which could jeopardize nearly $800 billion in annual trade between Mexico and the US and call into question protections of the USMCA agreement, which Trump signed in 2020.

Sheinbaum has sought to avoid tariffs on all Mexican goods, which could jeopardize nearly $800 billion in annual trade between Mexico and the US and call into question protections of the USMCA agreement, which Trump signed in 2020.