Spot Rates Show Positive Signs for Carriers in 2025

The truckload market is fairly balanced as 2024 nears an end, but it is changing, according to the latest release of the ACT Research  Freight Forecast: Rate and Volume OUTLOOK report.

“Currently, with a significant capacity contraction by for-hire fleets and private fleet insourcing slowing, capacity has finally rebalanced enough for rates to start moving higher,” shared Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst. “With DAT spot rates net fuel tracking 7% higher than a year ago in Q4, contract rates are rising modestly but consistently across DAT data, Cass data, and fleets’ financial reports for the first time in three years.”

“The market is very close to balance, and in 2025 the combination of normalizing equipment supply and a pre-tariff safety stock build are poised to drive higher for-hire freight demand and rates. The big private fleet expansion of the past two years will likely still leave anyone looking for a boom disappointed, but the for-hire rate recession is finally over,” he added.

“The trajectory is quite different than the past two cycles, but after three years in loose territory, the truckload supply-demand balance is set to turn tighter in the coming months,” Denoyer concluded.