Forecast Shows Third-Consecutive Quarter of Decelerating Spot Rate Growth

Truckload rates continued to climb year-over-year in the third quarter, but the pace of that growth slowed for the third straight quarter. Spot prices rose 1.8% from a year earlier, a sharp deceleration from the 6.5% gain in the second quarter and the 9.1% increase recorded in the first. The report indicates that muted freight volumes, persistent carrier cost pressures, and ongoing capacity exits are shaping a market that remains fragile heading into peak shipping season.

The analysis comes from RXO’s latest Curve forecast, which provides a fourth-quarter outlook and a detailed recap of third-quarter performance. The report examines macroeconomic factors, rate movements, and operational conditions across the truckload sector as 2025 winds down.

Key Findings

• Slowing rate growth: The 1.8% year-over-year spot-rate increase marks the slowest pace of growth this year, underscoring the combined effect of soft freight demand and contracting carrier capacity.
• Muted volumes despite peak season: Traditional fourth-quarter shipping activity may cause isolated rate fluctuations, but the forecast suggests overall freight volumes will remain subdued.
• Accelerating capacity exits: Rising operating costs, prolonged exposure to low rates, and increased regulatory enforcement continue to push carriers out of the market. The report warns that this shrinking capacity base could magnify rate volatility once demand rebounds.

“The trends we’ve been seeing for much of the past two years continued in the third quarter,” said Corey Klujsza, vice president of pricing and procurement. “Muted freight volumes, waning carrier capacity, and low spot rates haven’t been able to sustain any significant upward momentum.”

Jared Weisfeld, the RXO chief strategy officer, said the combination of weak consumer demand and carrier cost inflation remains the key dynamic heading into year-end. “The capacity environment is more fragile than at any point over the past two years, and a modest spike in demand and/or the continuation of capacity exits could lead to rate volatility in 2026.”