Election of Donald Trump “sends shockwaves through supply chain”

Thursday, Nov 7, 2024

As reported by CNBC’s Lori Ann Larocco, the election of Donald Trump to a second, non-consecutive Presidential term has importers scrambling to move up orders before his proposed tariffs take effect in January 2025.

President-elect Trump has vowed to move fast on aggressive new tariffs on imports and said in his speech early Wednesday morning, “promises made, promises kept.”

More from Larocco’s reporting:

The shipping anxiety could fuel freight rates, and shares of trucking and railroad stocks rallied on Wednesday, though international ocean carriers slumped, led by Maersk on fears about lower overall global volumes of trade in a new trade war.

Trump has vowed across-the-board tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports arriving into the United States and a 60%-100% tariff on Chinese imports.

“This is 2018 all over again,” said Paul Brashier, vice president of global supply chain for ITS Logistics, referring to the year during which Trump first imposed sweeping tariffs in his first term. “The calls expand beyond shippers who have Chinese imports. The global tariff threat is fueling calls for frontloading from all around the globe,” he said.

Brashier expects Trump’s election to result in increased container demand and vessel bookings, which will then fuel freight rates, trucking and warehouse rates.

In addition to the tariffs, the future of the three-country free trade agreement that replaced NAFTA, USMCA, will also be a subject of renegotiation in 2026. President-elect Trump has already said he wants to renegotiate the USMCA deal he made in 2020. One key provision was a requirement for the countries to begin reviewing the trade deal after six years, a process that will begin in July 2026. Chinese manufacturing in Mexico to circumvent the Trump/Biden tariffs will be a likely part of the trade renegotiation.

Jordan Dewart, CEO of Redwood Mexico, which specializes in cross-border logistics, said leading up to and immediately after the election, his firm fielded many concerns from customers about the immediate proposed tariff changes that would impact northbound goods already in process to be shipped to the US.

“Clearly this would have a huge impact on both U.S. and Mexican companies,” said Dewart. “With over $2 billion crossing the border daily even a short term change would have huge repercussions and could cause companies to get ahead of these changes by importing their goods ahead of schedule.”

He added it will create a short term need for storage at the U.S.-Mexico border and may increase overall trade volumes in Q4. “The short-term impact of pulling freight forward will increase freight rates, especially in Mexico, where the driver shortage and fuel prices are already causing upward pressures,” Dewart said. “The Peso, devalued 2.5% overnight, will provide some relief as most rates are negotiated in U.S. dollars.”

Proposed tariffs would cause some companies to further delay their investment in Mexico, according to Dewart, which has been booming. Many European and Asian-based companies have been investing heavily in Mexico as a way to shore up trade strategy. Companies including John Deere, which had been a target of Trump, and Tesla, have both announced recent pullbacks in manufacturing plans within Mexico.

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