Diesel at $5.64, Ocean Rates Climbing, and a Strait That Won’t Reopen

Atlantic and Gulf port regions are running hot, West Coast gateways are absorbing outbound capacity pressure, and the domestic transportation market is taking simultaneous hits from fuel costs, enforcement activity, and rerouted ocean carrier networks. The common thread running through all of it is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

That is the picture emerging from the May edition of the ITS Logistics Port/Rail Ramp Freight Index, which tracks port container and dray operations across Pacific, Atlantic, and Gulf regions alongside domestic container rail ramp activity for both coasts.

The fuel picture is the most immediate signal. Average retail diesel reached $5.639 per gallon as of May 11, a jump of nearly 29 cents since the end of April and one of the sharpest short-window increases in recent memory. That cost is passing through to spot rates, which FTR Transportation Intelligence reported approached all-time highs during the week of May 8. The pressure is not expected to ease quickly.

Layered on top of the fuel shock, May 12 marked the start of the Commercial Vehicle Safety Alliance’s annual International Roadcheck. Day one of the 2026 inspection period produced 1,580 inspections with an out-of-service rate of 31.4% for vehicles inspected. Carriers placed out of service, alongside those who voluntarily reduce road activity during the enforcement window, contribute to tighter available capacity and additional upward rate pressure at a moment when shippers can least absorb it.

The ocean side of the market is under comparable strain. Transpacific spot rates have climbed 22% since the beginning of April. Trans-Atlantic lanes from North Europe to the East Coast are up 46%. With the Strait closed, ocean carriers are competing for limited alternative routings, and according to PBS, increased Panama Canal traffic has triggered bidding wars for last-minute transit slots, with auction prices reaching into the millions.

“The ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt ocean carrier networks and cause surges in ocean container rates,” said Paul Brashier, Vice President of Global Supply Chain for ITS Logistics. “East Coast and Gulf Coast ports are seeing activity increases as they pick up additional export volumes from goods previously sourced in the Middle East.”

Total U.S. containerized imports came in at 2,277,965 TEUs for April, down 3.2% from March and modestly lower year-over-year, per Descartes. West Coast gateways absorbed the bulk of the softness as China-origin imports fell and transpacific rates rose. The Port of Los Angeles was the exception, posting its second-best April on record. Brashier attributes that isolated strength to ocean carriers consolidating import activity to a single West Coast gateway as a means of managing rising costs through blank sailings.

Meanwhile, the United States has emerged as a backup provider of global oil production as Middle Eastern supply tightens. U.S. exports of oil products reached a weekly record of 8.2 million barrels per day in early May, according to Bloomberg. The Port of Corpus Christi posted its busiest first quarter in history, with oil exports up 30% since February, providing a counterweight to the softness in import volumes along the Gulf Coast.

The cost gap between trucking and rail has now widened enough to prompt strategic reconsideration. Rising diesel prices are pushing some shippers to convert drayage operations and long-haul truckload moves to intermodal rail, according to the Journal of Commerce. Brashier is watching that shift carefully. “As shippers change modes from trucking to rail to find relief from higher fuel costs, we could start to see congestion at inland rail ramps that challenge key entry points for many ocean containers in North America.”

The May index captures a freight market where multiple independent pressure systems have converged simultaneously. Fuel costs, enforcement-driven capacity tightening, rerouted ocean networks, and shifting modal economics are all moving at once, and none of them are resolved. For shippers building transportation plans through the summer, the index offers a clear-eyed read on what the next several months are likely to demand.